CFL Week 2

[HPark1]

0-2, -3.7x

Early play;
Ottawa +10, -110 x2
-have this line about 7/8. Will explain more in depth later.

Other lines are pretty accurate. Edmonton looked very strong (revamped defense looks extremely strong) and I suppose they do warrant being a double digit fav. Winnipeg started their season by allowing their kickoff to be returned for a TD! I think this will symbolize what type of season they are in for. Possibly the worst team in the league.

Toronto/Calgary will be a close matchup. New acquistions QB H. Burris and WR J. Copeland have created excitement that Calgary can have a major turnaround. Problem is Burris throws to many INT's and Toronto's veteran defense are ball hogs so I think this might be a bad matchup. Calgary's defense last year was top 3 and returns most of that same unit. May be worth an under here. Top defenses against mediocre offenses. Total is the same as the Toronto/BC matchup yet BC's offense is light years better than Calgary's while those two defenses are pretty equal. Draw your own conclusions.

Saskatchewan/Hamilton looks like tight win for Saskatchewan. However I don't trust Saskatchewan and don't put a lot into their blowout win over the pathetic Bluebombers. They looked impressive but I'm still unsure of how good they really are. Hamilton also put in a poor effort against Montreal. No offensive TD's is embarassing. Was it a bad game or a sign of things to come? Too early to tell.


gl

 

[Moon88]

GL HPark on your play. I would have waited for 1/2 to 1pt better on gameday. Feel this one may hit 11. I have no opinion on this matchup, but BM will see action on MTL.

 

[HPark1]

BM = Bowmans?

If so I don't think it would matter for me. I've noticed the lines offered when I browse their lines and those offered when I log in are different. :sad3:

 

[bigbill]

Bowmans uses a very tight computer
profile on it's customers and adjusts
their lines based on their wagering habits.

 

[HPark1]

mandatory play

Edmonton -10, -110 *x3

Starting QB K. Glenn is doubtful for this contest. He's no star but what they have behind him is worse.

here's info about the backup from tsn.ca

...Tee Martin has yet to take a snap for the Blue Bombers since arriving in Winnipeg last fall. He spent the end of last season as the team's third string quarterback. During training camp this year, he tweaked his knee and only saw action in the team's second exhibition game, which amounted to a total of 11 snaps.

Hard to imagine a great outing against a solid (or what appears to be) defense of Edmonton. They showed the ability to create pressure which is the primary concern for rookie QB's.


gl

 

[Poopanugget]

HP,

ALways look forward to your analysis of the CFL.

Last year you rated your plays either strong or regular.

How does your new rating system equate to last years?

PN

 

[HPark1]

yeah I kept it simple last year. For moneyline purposes I thought I would go from 1-5x this year to make it more accurate.

1x probably only use for moneyline dogs
2x is a small play
3x would be a regular play
4x would be a strong play
5x very strong


Take it easy early on, picks will be more reliable once I get a proper feel for all the teams.

 

[Moon88]

mandatory play

Edmonton -10, -110 *x3

Starting QB K. Glenn is doubtful for this contest. He's no star but what they have behind him is worse.

here's info about the backup from tsn.ca



Hard to imagine a great outing against a solid (or what appears to be) defense of Edmonton. They showed the ability to create pressure which is the primary concern for rookie QB's.


gl

HPark checked a few places I have seen QB K. Glenn listed as ? :toast: All the best on your plays!

 

[Moon88]

.......Adding Bombers head coach Jim Daley was still hoping that Glenn can practise today, although he is ? Morning reports should be a better forecast of his condition.

 

[HPark1]

from the reports I've read it appears very unlikely he will suit up.

We either get Glenn on one ankle or an inexperience CFL'er T. Martin making his debut. Both ain't so bad.


Sportsnet has said T. Martin will start according to source Eric Tillman.

 

[HPark1]

Attempting to middle my Edmonton play. The only reason I played it was because of the news of Tee Martin starting. I really don't feel comfortable laying double digits on the road. Winnipeg was embarassed in their opener, they should put forth a better effort in their home opener. Also at home rookie QB's feel more comfortable so it wouldn't shock me if T. Martin did an adequate job.

Winnipeg +12.5, -110 *x3


Going to watch this at home so maybe have a halftime play.


gl

 

[8ate]

..

nice thinking park..

it seems better teams are creeming the worst and smart guy huge home dogs ain't covering yet

thanks for info and pix

gl

:drink:

 

[HPark1]

well looks like I should've taken the value with the -10 and not chickened out by buying it back. Ah well, almost landed the middle, was on 12 late in the game but it was not to be.


Will stick with Ottawa and the 10. Pinnacles now has 10, +110 and 10.5/11's will probably cover the board by gametime. Should have known this line was going to climb with both teams having opposite opening games. Still think Ottawa rebounds and hangs in the whole way. Montreal is not the same team they were in recent years.


One prop at Olympic. Won't count on my record because these lines are not available to everyone.

J. Reynolds Over 4.2 yrd average carry
Toronto is always vulnerable to the run with the scheme they use (3-4 defense). Reynolds made his CFL debut last year and looks impressive. He is a load to handle and has good speed for his size. 4.2 is too low.



gl

 

[AFLGuru]

HPark... Just a general question about the CFL as a whole... You mentioned that Toronto plays a base 3-4 defense... when listening to these games I often hear announcers make mention of a "30 defense" or a "40 defense" (or replace defense with package, which I assume to be one in the same). Are these similar to an NFL style "3-4" = "30 defense" and "4-3" = "40 defense"? Or are these some sort of special sets, whether they be a nickel or dime type package in the NFL?

 

[jwblue]

well looks like I should've taken the value with the -10 and not chickened out by buying it back. Ah well, almost landed the middle, was on 12 late in the game but it was not to be.


Will stick with Ottawa and the 10. Pinnacles now has 10, +110 and 10.5/11's will probably cover the board by gametime. Should have known this line was going to climb with both teams having opposite opening games. Still think Ottawa rebounds and hangs in the whole way. Montreal is not the same team they were in recent years.


One prop at Olympic. Won't count on my record because these lines are not available to everyone.

J. Reynolds Over 4.2 yrd average carry
Toronto is always vulnerable to the run with the scheme they use (3-4 defense). Reynolds made his CFL debut last year and looks impressive. He is a load to handle and has good speed for his size. 4.2 is too low.



gl

How many units should I play this prop?

IS

 

[jwblue]

Good comeback by Ottowa. I guess OT isn't sudden death. Hope that doesn't hurt us.

IS

 

[jwblue]

Great call on the Joffrey Reynolds prop in the Calgary game. 15 carries 107 yards. Average of 7.1 yards.

IS

 

[HPark1]

Well very interesting game. Really don't know what to make of it. Did Montreal completely fall apart or did Ottawa just wake up in the 4th quarter? Guess a bit of both, moreso the former. Unitl the last quarter I was watching and thinking how terribly wrong my perception of Ottawa was. They looked simply outmatched in every category. Brutal call by Montreal when they had 3rd and just under a yard and threw from the shotgun. Montreal has a great o-line and in the CFL you don't line up helmet to helmet so getting under a yard is a cinch for any competent team. D. Matthews is possibly the best coach/detective in the league, he does like to take chances but he simply miscalculated in that situation. Have Ottawa over 4.5 wins for the season so I'll take it.


Looking over the Sas/Ham closer, maybe I can force a play there. lol.
At first glance the Under seems the way to go. Both teams love to run the ball and then get stalled in the scoring area when they can't complete a pass.

HPark... Just a general question about the CFL as a whole... You mentioned that Toronto plays a base 3-4 defense... when listening to these games I often hear announcers make mention of a "30 defense" or a "40 defense" (or replace defense with package, which I assume to be one in the same). Are these similar to an NFL style "3-4" = "30 defense" and "4-3" = "40 defense"? Or are these some sort of special sets, whether they be a nickel or dime type package in the NFL?

I can only assume that they are one in the same. I've really never heard the announcers say that, perhaps I'm not attentive enough. I heard "thirty-four" or fourty-three" defense last night.

Do you listen to the NESN and TSN broadcasts?

----------------------------------------------

IS,

Props fall in between the 2x-3x range. Max wager at Olympis is 200us (to win) so they really take it out of my hands. I use canadian dollars so I either put two hundred or max it out.

 

[AFLGuru]

HPark--

I don't have a dish... thus I miss a ton because I only get the experience of listening to these games instead of watching them. I heard the terminology of "30 defense" and "40 defense" in week one listening to Hamilton's radio guys and Saskatchewan's radio guys, and then against last night from the Calgary guys once in the first half.

--AFLGuru

 

[HPark1]

Almost certain this is just different terminology. Looking at the schemes they don't seem unique to me.